It's the end of the world as we know it, per a physicist's 1960 prediction
Summary
Heinz von Foerster’s 1960 model projected that population growth would eventually make Earth overcrowded. Global population growth later slowed, and birth rates are now less than half their 1960 level.Key Facts
- Heinz von Foerster published his population-growth prediction in the journal Science in 1960.
- Von Foerster projected that population would keep growing toward infinity and said people would be squeezed to death.
- His projection assumed past population-growth trends would continue largely unchanged.
- The global population did not continue accelerating exponentially, and the postwar baby boom began to fade soon after the paper appeared.
- Longer life expectancy and falling child mortality also affected population trends.
- The global birth rate is now slightly less than half its 1960 level.
- Von Foerster’s projections began to lose accuracy around 1993 as population growth fell behind his forecasts.
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