US Think Tank War Games Putin Death, Invasion Of NATO State By 2030
Summary
RAND Europe outlined a hypothetical sequence in which Vladimir Putin’s death in early 2027 leads to a Russian power struggle, a ceasefire in Ukraine and a later confrontation with NATO. The scenario includes hybrid attacks and a possible Russian seizure of part of Estonia in 2030; RAND described it as one possible pathway, not a prediction.Key Facts
- RAND Europe published a scenario examining how a Russian attack on NATO territory in Eastern Europe could unfold by 2030.
- The scenario begins with Putin’s hypothetical death in early 2027 and a struggle among senior Russian officials to succeed him.
- In the scenario, Russia’s new leader agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine while the conflict remains unresolved and Russia retains control of large areas.
- The scenario describes hybrid attacks, such as cyberattacks, information campaigns or sabotage, before a possible military clash with NATO.
- The hypothetical attack includes the seizure of part of Estonia.
- NATO’s Article 5 commits members to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all.
- Russia has denied planning attacks on NATO and rejected claims that it has increased hybrid warfare against European countries.
- Danish intelligence said in September that the risk of a limited Russian attack on NATO countries was low but growing.
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