A Newsweek analysis looks at three possible results for the 2024 U.S. midterm elections based on current polling and possible errors. It shows Democrats are likely to keep control of the House, while control of the Senate is less certain and depends on how close the polls are to actual votes.
Key Facts
If current polls are exactly right, Democrats would win both the House and the Senate.
Democrats have about a 7.9-point lead in the national generic ballot, predicting roughly 235 House seats.
A 2-point shift towards Republicans would narrow the Senate to a 51-49 Democratic majority and reduce the House majority to about 228 seats.
A 4-point Republican shift would keep the Senate majority with Republicans at 53-47 but still give Democrats a slim House majority of about 220 seats.
Polls do not predict results perfectly because people’s opinions can change and some groups are harder to poll.
The 2024 polling is considered fairly accurate compared to past elections in 2016 and 2020.
Differences in state-level races can lead to big differences from national polling averages.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Texas Republicans redesigned the congressional districts expecting Latino voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 to continue backing the GOP. However, recent polls show Latino voters are moving toward Democrats in key districts, influenced by issues such as immigration raids and rising costs of living.
Key Facts
Texas GOP redrew districts last year, focusing on majority Hispanic areas that voted for President Trump.
Governor Greg Abbott called the new districts "Hispanic Republican districts."
Polls now show Democrats leading in several districts once held or targeted by Republicans.
Latino voter support for Trump in Texas dropped after gains in 2024.
Latino voters favored Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton by wide margins in recent polls.
In the 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Monica De La Cruz according to polls.
Republican efforts to flip districts have faced setbacks partly due to concerns over immigration enforcement and economic issues like grocery and gas prices.
Latino voters along the Texas border report feeling targeted by current policies, affecting their political preferences.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Democratic candidates in Texas and Kansas are focusing on their Christian faith to connect with voters in states that usually vote Republican. These campaigns challenge the traditional hold of conservative Christians on religious voters and could help Democrats win important Senate seats.
Key Facts
James Talarico (Texas) and Adam Hamilton (Kansas) are Democrats who highlight their Christian faith in their campaigns.
Both Texas and Kansas are strongly Republican states, with President Trump winning them by large margins in 2024.
Neither state has elected a Democratic senator in many years; Kansas last did in 1932.
White evangelical Christians mostly support Republicans, but other Christian groups are more mixed or lean Democratic.
Talarico is a Presbyterian seminary student and visits Black churches to broaden support.
Hamilton is a United Methodist pastor aiming to appeal to moderate and less active Christian voters.
Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock, a Black pastor, was elected in 2021, showing faith can play a role for Democrats.
Some Democratic candidates in other states with religious backgrounds are also running and seeking to connect with faith-based voters.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The Trump administration is trying to stop Alaska from officially approving the Senate election result if Senator Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola. They claim that another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan was put on the ballot to confuse voters and take votes away from the incumbent Senator Sullivan.
Key Facts
The Department of Justice filed a complaint against Alaska and election officials about the Senate race.
The complaint says Daniel J. Sullivan entered the race to trick voters who meant to vote for Senator Dan Sullivan.
President Donald Trump supports Senator Dan Sullivan and says this situation is cheating.
Daniel J. Sullivan was formerly with the Alaska Independence Party but ran as a Republican this year.
Alaska courts allowed Daniel J. Sullivan to stay on the ballot despite attempts to remove him.
The DOJ wants to block the election result if votes for Daniel J. Sullivan could have changed the outcome.
They are asking for an investigation to see if voters intended to vote for the incumbent Senator Sullivan.
The legal case focuses on Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and potential voter confusion.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India to focus on energy cooperation amid rising oil prices and upcoming US elections. He toured the large Jamnagar oil refinery, which can process a significant amount of crude oil, seeking ways to ease fuel supply pressures for the US.
Key Facts
Rubio visited Mumbai and Jamnagar in India during his recent trip.
He met Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and top Indian business leaders.
Jamnagar in Gujarat has a giant oil refinery owned by Mukesh Ambani.
The refinery can process about 1.4 million barrels of crude oil per day (about 1.5% of global capacity).
The visit aimed to help control US fuel prices before the November midterm elections.
The US wants to use India's refining capacity to ease global energy supply pressures.
Rubio skipped India’s capital, Delhi, focusing instead on energy partnerships and commercial talks.
The US and India discussed trade, investment, energy security, and defense cooperation.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The UK Government has advised people to keep 72 hours of emergency supplies at home but will not provide an official list of what to buy. This advice follows warnings about possible cyber-attacks that could disrupt important government services.
Key Facts
The UK Government recommended that people prepare supplies to last three days in case of disaster.
The Government will not issue a specific "shopping list" for the public to follow.
Officials want to provide information on their website for people to make their own decisions about emergency supplies.
Recent cyber-attacks targeted UK government websites, causing service interruptions.
Treasury minister James Murray emphasized the campaign is about raising awareness, not giving exact instructions.
The advice comes amid concerns about potential overseas cyber-attacks on vital systems.
Chancellor John Healey plans to reduce bureaucracy for businesses in an upcoming budget, aiming to cut £800 million in red tape.
The government is focused on helping businesses by reducing unnecessary rules and reporting demands.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
A campaign ad attacking Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for Ohio governor, caused strong negative reactions. The controversy spread beyond Ohio and created problems for the Republican Party just before the midterm elections.
Key Facts
The ad targeted Amy Acton, the Democratic nominee for Ohio governor.
The ad received backlash from people both inside and outside Ohio.
This controversy occurred less than two weeks before the 2026 midterm elections.
The Republican Party faced difficulty dealing with the negative response to the ad.
Midterm elections in the U.S. happen every two years and involve selecting members of Congress and some state officials.
Campaign ads are used by political candidates to promote themselves or criticize opponents.
Ohio is an important state in U.S. elections due to its large number of voters.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Many households in the Northeast United States, where heating oil is commonly used, face higher heating costs this winter due to rising heating oil prices. The increase in prices is linked to disruptions in the global oil market following the conflict in the Middle East, causing some families to pay much more to heat their homes as temperatures drop.
Key Facts
Heating oil prices have risen more than 70% compared to last year, averaging over $6 per gallon.
About 4.8 million U.S. households rely on heating oil, mostly in the Northeast.
Maine has the highest share of homes using heating oil, with about 50% relying on it for heat.
Other states with significant heating oil use include New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York.
Heating oil and diesel fuel are similar, so supply issues affect both prices.
A typical Northeast household using heating oil might need 800 to 1,000 gallons in a heating season.
This could translate into heating bills around $6,000, compared to approximately $3,500 to $4,000 in previous years.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects a 21% increase in heating oil spending this winter compared to last year.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The article explains how the upcoming 2030 U.S. population census will change the number of House seats and Electoral College votes for states. It highlights that red states in the South are expected to gain seats and votes, while some blue states in the Northeast and northern swing states are expected to lose them, affecting future presidential elections in 2032.
Key Facts
The 2030 census will affect the number of House seats and Electoral College votes states have for elections after 2030.
Southern states are expected to gain many House seats, with the South having twice as many as the Northeast (164 vs. 81).
Texas could gain 4 Electoral College votes, Florida 2 or 3, while California may lose 4.
Some blue states like New York and Illinois are expected to lose one Electoral College vote each.
Swing states in the north (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) may lose a vote, while southern swing states (Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona) may gain one.
Population changes are due to birth and death rates, migration between states, immigration, and census counting.
Republican-leaning counties have higher birth rates but also higher death rates and negative natural population growth.
Migration adds population to Republican counties but many newcomers come from blue or swing states, which may reduce Republican support.
Immigration increases population more in Democratic counties than Republican ones.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The Pentagon has issued a rule that stops military members from using secret or private information to bet on prediction markets, which are platforms to guess outcomes of events. This rule follows a case where a Special Forces soldier was charged with using military secrets to make bets and win money about the ousting of Venezuela’s president.
Key Facts
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sent a memo banning troops and Department of Defense civilians from betting on military events using nonpublic information.
Using such information to bet can reveal secret plans to enemies and create risks in military operations.
A Special Forces soldier was charged with using classified details about a mission to bet over $400,000 on Polymarket.
Troops cannot use either classified or unclassified but private information for trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Breaking this rule can lead to military punishment or criminal charges under U.S. law.
The concern is that financial interests might influence military judgment and decisions.
Similar concerns exist outside the military, such as congressional candidates betting on election outcomes and people profiting from private info about ceasefire announcements.
The White House has also warned against trading on prediction markets using private information.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
President Donald Trump has called for a boycott of the WNBA because some players leave the court during the national anthem. He also criticized basketball player LeBron James for moving during the anthem at a recent game, saying it shows disrespect to the country.
Key Facts
WNBA players from the Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries have left the court during the national anthem at the WNBA Finals.
The Golden State Valkyries say leaving the court during the anthem is part of their routine since joining the league last year.
The Atlanta Dream has left the court before the anthem for several years.
President Trump called for a WNBA boycott during a campaign rally in Iowa.
He compared the WNBA player actions to past NFL protests where players kneeled during the anthem.
Trump said people stopped watching NFL games during those protests and suggested the same could happen with women’s basketball.
Trump called LeBron James a "total disgrace" for not standing still during the anthem at a recent game.
LeBron James was seen practicing a golf swing and basketball shots while the anthem was sung before the Philadelphia 76ers season opener.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
President Donald Trump received a "Man of the Century" award from Joe Mitchell, a Republican candidate for Congress in Iowa, during a campaign rally. The award was created by Mitchell and presented to Trump on stage as a recognition of his achievements.
Key Facts
Joe Mitchell is running for Iowa’s second congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Mitchell gave Trump a gold-framed certificate titled “Man of the Century” during a rally in Sioux City, Iowa.
Mitchell said no Nobel Peace Prize was given to Trump and created this new award instead.
Mitchell praised Trump for his support to Iowa and called him the greatest president.
The award was not an official honor but something Mitchell made up himself.
The moment was shared on social media, where some users made fun of the award.
Newsweek tried to get comments from the White House and Mitchell’s campaign but did not receive immediate responses.
The story is ongoing and may be updated later.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The U.S. midterm elections happening in November could affect the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term. The results may impact how easily he can pass laws or start investigations depending on which party controls Congress.
Key Facts
President Trump is not running for re-election during the midterms.
The midterms decide control of Congress, which includes the House of Representatives and the Senate.
If President Trump's party controls Congress, it will be easier for him to pass laws.
If the opposing party controls Congress, it could block his legislative plans.
Control of Congress affects the ability to launch investigations related to the president or his administration.
The midterms influence the political environment for the remainder of President Trump’s current term.
Voters choose their congressional representatives in these midterm elections.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
A serving detective, Linda Williams, was raped by a fellow officer, David Carrick, who was later jailed for life. She says the Metropolitan Police’s handling of her case caused her more trauma, and she has now settled her civil claim against the force while calling for the police commissioner to resign.
Key Facts
Detective Constable Linda Williams was raped in 2004 by PC David Carrick.
Carrick was jailed for life in 2023 for sexual offences against Williams and 11 other women.
Williams suffers from PTSD and sued the Met for failing to protect her.
The Met challenged the seriousness of her PTSD during legal proceedings.
Williams settled her civil case and received compensation without the Met admitting fault.
She publicly called for Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley to resign over police culture failings.
Williams says she no longer trusts the Met to handle rape cases properly.
Carrick was convicted after a Hertfordshire Police investigation, not by the Met.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Senate leaders John Thune (Republican) and Chuck Schumer (Democrat) face tough Senate races in five states with candidates they did not prefer. Some former senators who changed party status are supporting candidates from the opposing side, adding complexity to the midterm elections.
Key Facts
In Texas, Republicans failed to stop Attorney General Ken Paxton from becoming their Senate nominee, leading to over $329 million spent against Democrat James Talarico.
Georgia’s GOP nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, struggles with fundraising compared to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.
In Maine, Democrats turned to Troy Jackson after issues with their initial candidate against Sen. Susan Collins.
Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won the Democratic primary in Michigan and is in a close race against Republican Mike Rogers.
Progressive Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination in Minnesota but faces a tough race against GOP’s Michele Tafoya.
Former Sen. Joe Manchin, now an independent, supports Republican Susan Collins in Maine.
Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema supports Republican Jay Feely in Arizona’s House race.
Former Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican, endorsed Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
In North Carolina and Ohio, Democrats have strong candidates challenging Republicans, including former Gov. Roy Cooper and ex-Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
President Donald Trump criticized NBA player LeBron James for what he said was disrespect during the national anthem before a game. LeBron James responded by downplaying the attack, while his team focused on their recent comeback win.
Key Facts
President Trump posted a video showing LeBron James making warm-up motions during the national anthem.
Trump said LeBron James disrespected the country and should apologize to military heroes.
LeBron James called Trump’s criticism a “slow news day at the office.”
The Philadelphia 76ers won a game after a large comeback, with LeBron contributing 17 points and 10 rebounds.
The team’s coach said players are trained to ignore outside distractions like this.
LeBron James is starting his 24th NBA season, the longest ever.
President Trump has previously criticized athletes for their actions during the national anthem, including Colin Kaepernick.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
A 1-year-old boy named Kohen Wiley was shot and killed by police during a June 14 incident at a Walmart in Senatobia, Mississippi. The Mississippi Attorney General’s Office found the police shooting justified, but the family and their attorney disagree and want a federal investigation.
Key Facts
Kohen Wiley was fatally shot by a police officer in a Walmart parking lot during a shoplifting pursuit.
The Mississippi Bureau of Investigation (MBI) released body camera footage showing the shooting.
The state Attorney General concluded the police used justified force because the vehicle was driving toward officers.
Kohen’s family and civil rights attorney Ben Crump said the shooting was excessive and not justified.
The two adults involved, including Kohen’s mother, were accused of stealing diapers but were not charged.
The police said the driver tried to run over the officers, leading to the shooting.
Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves supported the police and investigation but said he hadn’t seen the video.
The family wants a federal investigation and criticized the response to the death of the 1-year-old.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
The article discusses questions about what President Donald Trump might do if he loses the upcoming November election. It also promotes a live event and video content related to U.S. politics and voter rights.
Key Facts
The article centers on President Donald Trump's potential actions after the November election.
It invites readers to attend a live event hosted by Jonathan Freedland after the midterm elections.
Jonathan Freedland appears on a new YouTube channel called Politics Weekly.
Readers are encouraged to send questions and feedback to a specific email address.
The article mentions another episode of a show called Stateside, focused on attacks on voter rights in the U.S.
A photograph credited to Samuel Corum is included to support the content.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Matt Canavan, leader of the Nationals party, may run for a seat in the House of Representatives after MP Michelle Landry announced she will retire from her Queensland seat of Capricornia. Pollsters warn Canavan could lose his Senate seat due to a rise in One Nation's popularity, which threatens Nationals seats in Queensland.
Key Facts
Michelle Landry, the MP for Capricornia in Queensland, announced she will not run again.
Matt Canavan is considering running for the Capricornia seat in the House of Representatives.
Polling shows a surge in support for One Nation, which could cause Canavan to lose his Senate seat.
One Nation is gaining popularity, especially in Queensland, potentially winning seats from the Coalition (Liberals and Nationals).
Pollster Kos Samaras says Canavan’s chances of returning to the Senate are near zero if current trends continue.
Canavan said he will do whatever is needed to keep a seat in the lower house.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson might also run in Capricornia, but Landry criticized One Nation’s approach.
National political leaders and coalition members have not commented in detail about Canavan’s possible move.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
Two pilots safely ejected from a military training plane near Seguin, Texas, after finding a problem with the landing gear. They followed expert advice to leave the aircraft and were checked by medical staff after landing.
Key Facts
The incident happened around 5:51 p.m. near Seguin, Texas.
The pilots flew a T-6A Texan II, a plane used to train U.S. Air Force and Navy pilots.
The plane showed signs the landing gear was not safe.
Experts told the pilots to eject from the plane, which they did successfully.
Both pilots were examined by local medical teams; their health status was not shared immediately.
The training wing involved is the 12th Flying Training Wing, which trains future Air Force aviators.
Seguin is about 35 miles east of San Antonio.
The T-6A Texan II has one engine and two seats specifically for teaching basic flying skills.
Read the Original
Want the full story? Tap a source to open the original
article.
