Summary
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for UK economic growth this year from 0.8% to 1%, making it the third fastest-growing economy among the G7 nations in 2026. The IMF cited slower-than-expected negative effects from the Middle East conflict and a boost from advances in artificial intelligence (AI), while warning that risks remain from ongoing global uncertainties.Key Facts
- The IMF now expects the UK's economy to grow by 1% in 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from April’s forecast.
- The UK’s 2027 growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.3%.
- The US is predicted to grow by 2.3%, helped by increased AI investment.
- Canada, an oil exporter, is forecasted to grow by 1.1%.
- Inflation in the UK stayed steady in May, with markets expecting only one interest rate rise by next spring.
- Global economic growth is forecast at 3% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, down from 3.5% in previous years.
- The IMF notes that higher oil and energy prices have been partly balanced by growth in technology demand, especially AI.
- The IMF warns of ongoing risks from renewed conflict in the Middle East and possible sharp corrections in technology-related markets.
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